美國流行病學家認為，美國當前處于應對新冠肺炎疫情的“新階段”，疫情正在“極其廣泛地蔓延”。專家警告說，美國冬季可能遭遇流感和新冠病毒“雙重”暴發(fā)。

Public health experts, researchers and manufacturers warn the coming flu season could bring a “double-barrel” respiratory disease outbreak in the United States, just as fall and winter are expected to exacerbate the spread of Covid-19.

新冠病毒的傳播預計會在秋冬季加劇，公共衛(wèi)生專家、研究人員和制造商警告說，美國即將到來的流感季可能會帶來“雙重”呼吸道疾病的暴發(fā)。

At the same time, researchers said the strategies currently used to prevent Covid-19 transmission – namely, hand-washing, mask-wearing and social distancing – could also help lessen flu outbreaks, if Americans are willing to practice them.

與此同時，研究人員表示，目前用于預防新冠病毒傳播的策略，即洗手、戴口罩和保持社交距離，也可能有助于減輕流感暴發(fā)，如果美國人愿意這么做的話。

“We will be faced with basically a double-barrel respiratory virus season, both influenza and Covid,” said Dr William Schaffner, medical director for the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases and a professor of medicine at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Tennessee.

美國國家傳染病基金會醫(yī)學負責人、田納西州范德比爾特大學醫(yī)學院教授威廉·沙夫納博士說：“大體上說，我們將面臨一個流感和新冠肺炎雙重呼吸道病毒的流行季?！?/p>

Flu season typically peaks between December and February in the northern hemisphere. It caused an estimated 61,000 deaths and 810,000 hospitalizations in 2019 in the US, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

北半球的流感季通常在當年12月至次年2月達到高峰。根據美國疾病控制和預防中心的數據，2019年，流感在美國造成約6.1萬人死亡、81萬人住院。

By comparison, Covid-19 has killed more than 166,000 people in the US with months to go before the end of the year, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. The disease hospitalized an estimated 293,000 people just between March and May 2020, according to the healthcare consulting firm Avalere. Those deaths and infections also occurred despite huge efforts – such as shutting down large parts of the US economy – being put into action to slow the virus’s path.

相比之下，根據約翰斯·霍普金斯大學冠狀病毒資源中心的數據，雖然目前距離年底還有數月，但新冠肺炎已經導致美國逾16.6萬人死亡。據醫(yī)療咨詢公司Avalere的數據，僅在今年3月至5月間，就有約29.3萬人因新冠肺炎住院。盡管采取了巨大的努力，比如停止大部分經濟活動，以減緩病毒傳播的速度，但仍未能阻止患者死亡和感染。

While the flu’s seasonality is not clearly understood, the way it spreads is well documented. Flu is transmitted in much the same way Covid-19 spreads: coughs, sputters and sneezes in close proximity in closed spaces and in crowds. For those reasons, social distancing measures are effective against influenza as well as Covid-19.

雖然人們尚不清楚流感的季節(jié)性成因，但其傳播方式卻有據可查。流感與新冠肺炎的傳播方式基本相同：病毒通過在封閉空間和人群中近距離咳嗽、飛沫濺射和打噴嚏傳播。由于上述原因，保持社交距離的措施對防控流感和新冠肺炎都是有效的。

When community spread of Covid-19 began in the United States in March, widespread shutdowns shaved “four to six weeks” off the flu season in 2020, said Dr Richard Kennedy, co-director of the Mayo Clinic’s vaccine research lab.

美國梅奧診所疫苗研究實驗室的聯合負責人理查德·肯尼迪博士說，新冠病毒今年3月開始在美國社區(qū)傳播時，大范圍的封鎖措施令2020年的流感季縮短了“4到6周”。

That was “probably as a direct result of the social distancing and the mask-wearing and the shutdown,” said Kennedy. A similar phenomenon is taking place in the southern hemisphere, where winter flu season is now tapering off. Countries such as Chile have seen historically low influenza transmission.

肯尼迪說，這“可能是保持社交距離、佩戴口罩和封鎖的直接結果”。南半球也出現了類似現象，目前那里的冬季流感季正接近尾聲。智利等國的流感傳播率創(chuàng)歷史最低水平。

taper off：逐漸停止；逐漸減少

“Will we see that same thing up here? The answer is, if we wear our masks and social distancing, yes. If we remain shut down, yes,” said Kennedy. “But I don’t know if Americans are going to do any or all of the above.”

肯尼迪說：“美國會發(fā)生同樣的情況嗎？如果我們戴口罩并保持社交距離，如果我們繼續(xù)采取封鎖措施，答案是肯定的。但我不知道美國人是否會執(zhí)行上述任何一項或全部措施。”

“We’re seeing groups wanting to open the economy up regardless of the risks. Then we’re seeing people saying, ‘No, we want to shut down and we don’t care if the economy crashes,’” said Kennedy.

肯尼迪說：“我們看到一些群體不顧風險，希望開放經濟。然后我們看到人們說，‘不，我們要封鎖，我們不在乎經濟是否崩潰’。”

But unlike for Covid-19, the world has another tool to fight seasonal influenza: flu vaccines.

但與新冠肺炎不同的是，世界上還有另一種抗擊季節(jié)性流感的工具：流感疫苗。

Young and old alike have fallen behind on routine vaccinations due to the pandemic. GlaxoSmithKline reported one of its vaccines, called the zoster for adult shingles, experienced a 67% drop in sales in April and May of 2020.

由于新冠疫情，年輕人和老年人都沒有及時接種常規(guī)疫苗。葛蘭素史克報告稱，其生產的一種“成人帶狀皰疹疫苗”在2020年4月和5月的銷量下降了67%。

A severe flu outbreak would pressure already thin supplies of medical equipment, tests and manpower, all of which are needed to fight Covid-19. It could also sow confusion, as patients with fevers and coughs from flu rush to hospital emergency rooms in fear of Covid-19.

一場嚴重的流感暴發(fā)將給本已稀缺的醫(yī)療設備、檢測和人力帶來壓力，而所有這些都是抗擊新冠肺炎所需的。流感暴發(fā)還可能引發(fā)混亂，因為流感導致發(fā)燒和咳嗽的患者會因擔心感染新冠肺炎而涌向醫(yī)院急診室。

【美國疫情最新數據】

據美國約翰斯·霍普金斯大學發(fā)布的全球新冠肺炎數據實時統(tǒng)計系統(tǒng)，截至美國東部時間8月18日晚6時，全美共報告新冠肺炎確診5474630例，死亡171516例。過去24小時，美國新增確診49085例，新增死亡1199例。

英文來源：衛(wèi)報

翻譯&編輯：yaning