當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間9月16日，經(jīng)合組織發(fā)布了《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望中期報(bào)告》，將全球2020年GDP變動(dòng)預(yù)期從下滑6%上調(diào)至下滑4.5%，2021年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期同步上調(diào)至5%。此外，報(bào)告指出，按照目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)和疫情態(tài)勢(shì)，中國(guó)將是2020年二十國(guó)集團(tuán)中唯一實(shí)現(xiàn)正增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家。

The huge shock to many of the world's biggest economies from the coronavirus pandemic may not be quite as bad as economists feared just a few months ago.

新冠肺炎疫情對(duì)世界上許多大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的巨大沖擊，可能沒有幾個(gè)月前經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家擔(dān)心的那么嚴(yán)重。

In a report published on Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development upgraded its forecast for global economic output this year, noting that while declines were still "unprecedented in recent history," the outlook has improved slightly since June.

在周三（9月16日）發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中，經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）上調(diào)了對(duì)今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的預(yù)測(cè)，并指出，盡管降幅仍是“近年來前所未有的”，但前景自6月以來略有改善。

The Paris-based agency said it now expects the world economy to shrink by 4.5% in 2020 before expanding by 5% in 2021. Previously, the OECD said it thought the global economy would contract by 6% this year and grow 5.2% next year.

總部位于巴黎的經(jīng)合組織說，預(yù)計(jì)2020年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將下滑4.5%，2021年將增長(zhǎng)5%。此前，經(jīng)合組織認(rèn)為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)今年將下滑6%，明年將增長(zhǎng)5.2%。

But the agency, which represents the world's biggest economies, warned that headline figures mask major discrepancies. While it significantly boosted its 2020 forecasts for the United States and China, and slightly raised the outlook for Europe, the OECD lowered its expectations for developing countries such as Mexico, Argentina, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

但代表全球最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)合組織警告稱，整體數(shù)據(jù)掩蓋了重大差異。盡管經(jīng)合組織大幅提高了對(duì)美國(guó)和中國(guó)2020年的預(yù)測(cè)，并略微提高了對(duì)歐洲的展望，但降低了對(duì)墨西哥、阿根廷、印度、南非、印度尼西亞和沙特阿拉伯等發(fā)展中國(guó)家的預(yù)期。

OECD economists said the downgrades reflected "the prolonged spread of the virus, high levels of poverty and informality, and stricter confinement measures for an extended period."

經(jīng)合組織的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，預(yù)期的下調(diào)反映了“病毒的長(zhǎng)期傳播、高度貧困和非正規(guī)性，以及更為嚴(yán)格的限制措施實(shí)行期延長(zhǎng)”。

China is the only G20 country for which output is projected to rise in 2020, with its economy growing 1.8%, compared to a 3.8% contraction in the United States and a 7.9% decline among the 19 countries that use the euro. Beijing reported Tuesday that retail sales were higher in August than they had been the previous year — the first time sales have increased in 2020.

在二十國(guó)集團(tuán)中，經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)只有中國(guó)的2020年經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出將增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為1.8%，相比之下，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期將下滑3.8%，19個(gè)歐元區(qū)國(guó)家將下滑7.9%。根據(jù)中國(guó)政府周二（9月15日）發(fā)布的報(bào)告，中國(guó)8月份零售業(yè)銷售額高于去年同期，這是2020年零售額首次出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。

The OECD noted the earlier timing of the country's outbreak and its ability to swiftly bring it under control, as well as policies that paved the way for a rapid bounce back in activity, pointing to strong infrastructure investment in particular.

經(jīng)合組織指出，中國(guó)疫情暴發(fā)時(shí)間較早，但有能力迅速控制住，并出臺(tái)了相關(guān)政策為經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)迅速恢復(fù)鋪平道路，尤其是強(qiáng)有力的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資。

Meanwhile, South Africa's economy could shrink by 11.5% this year, according to the OECD. Mexico and India's economies are both on track for a 10.2% contraction. That's worse than the forecasts for developed economies with the exception of Italy, which is due to shrink 10.5% after it was hit hard by the virus.

與此同時(shí)，根據(jù)經(jīng)合組織的數(shù)據(jù)，南非經(jīng)濟(jì)今年或?qū)⑾禄?1.5%。墨西哥和印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)將下滑10.2%。這比除意大利以外的其他發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的預(yù)期更糟糕，意大利受到疫情重創(chuàng)，預(yù)期經(jīng)濟(jì)將下滑10.5%。

經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性仍然很高

The OECD cautioned that its outlook is far from set, and much depends on the trajectory of Covid-19 infections and ongoing support from policymakers. It added that the global recovery "lost some momentum over the summer months" after an initial burst of activity.

經(jīng)合組織警告說，經(jīng)濟(jì)前景還遠(yuǎn)未確定，在很大程度上取決于新冠疫情的進(jìn)展和政策制定者的持續(xù)支持。該組織補(bǔ)充說，在最初的經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟措施后，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的步伐“在夏季出現(xiàn)放緩的跡象”。

"A recovery is now under way following the easing of strict confinement measures and the reopening of businesses, but uncertainty remains high and confidence is still fragile," the agency said in its report.

經(jīng)合組織在報(bào)告中表示：“在嚴(yán)格的限制措施放松、企業(yè)重新開業(yè)后，經(jīng)濟(jì)正在復(fù)蘇，但不確定性仍然很高，人們的信心仍然很脆弱?！?/p>

Some of its estimates are also contingent on policy assumptions that may not materialize.

經(jīng)合組織的一些預(yù)測(cè)所基于的政策假設(shè)也可能無法實(shí)現(xiàn)。

contingent [k?n?t?nd??nt]：adj.以事實(shí)為依據(jù)的；依情況而變的

The OECD assumes, for example, that the United Kingdom will reach a "basic" free trade agreement for goods with the European Union. But talks could be crushed by a controversial bill introduced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government.

例如，經(jīng)合組織假設(shè)，英國(guó)將與歐盟達(dá)成一項(xiàng)“基本”的貨物自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定。但英國(guó)政府提出的一項(xiàng)有爭(zhēng)議的法案可能會(huì)使談判破裂。

The agency expects the UK economy to shrink by 10.1% this year, a slight improvement over its last estimate.

經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)今年英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將下滑10.1%，比之前的預(yù)計(jì)略有改善。

The OECD is also counting on US lawmakers to approve another stimulus package worth up to $1.5 trillion this fall, though negotiations have reached an impasse. Reaching an agreement may be more difficult as the November election approaches.

經(jīng)合組織還寄希望于美國(guó)在今年秋天批準(zhǔn)另一項(xiàng)高達(dá)1.5萬億美元（約合人民幣10萬億元）的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃，但是談判已陷入僵局。隨著11月美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選的臨近，達(dá)成協(xié)議可能會(huì)更加困難。

The group's predictions for the global recovery in 2021 are slightly lower than they were in June. OECD economists made clear they see a long road ahead.

經(jīng)合組織對(duì)2021年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的預(yù)測(cè)比6月份時(shí)略低。該組織的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們明確表示，他們認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇路漫漫。

"In most economies, the level of output at the end of 2021 is projected to remain below that at the end of 2019, and considerably weaker than projected prior to the pandemic, highlighting the risk of long-lasting costs from the pandemic," the report said.

報(bào)告稱：“大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)體2021年底的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出水平預(yù)計(jì)仍將低于2019年底，且大幅低于疫情暴發(fā)前的預(yù)期，這凸顯出疫情帶來的長(zhǎng)期成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！?/p>

英文來源：CNN

翻譯&編輯：yaning