據(jù)?？怂剐侣劸W(wǎng)6月27日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)傳統(tǒng)基金會(huì)客座研究員、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯蒂芬·摩爾警告稱，美國(guó)已經(jīng)處于“溫和衰退”之中，并指出“真正的問(wèn)題”是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)軟著陸。

Economist Stephen Moore warned on Monday that the United States is already in a "soft recession," noting that the "real question" is now whether the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing.

6月27日，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯蒂芬·摩爾警告稱，美國(guó)已經(jīng)處于“溫和衰退”之中，并指出“真正的問(wèn)題”是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)軟著陸。

Moore, a visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, provided the insight on "Varney & Co." Monday, reacting to former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers contradicting President Biden on Sunday by saying that a recession was "almost inevitable" in the next two years.

6月27日，美國(guó)傳統(tǒng)基金會(huì)客座研究員摩爾接受福克斯新聞節(jié)目“Varney & Co”采訪時(shí)發(fā)表了這一見(jiàn)解，回應(yīng)了美國(guó)前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)拉里·薩默斯的觀點(diǎn)。6月26日，薩默斯反駁拜登總統(tǒng)，稱未來(lái)兩年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)衰退“幾乎不可避免”。

Summers provided the insight speaking on Bloomberg's "Wall Street Week," noting that there was a risk a recession could come sooner.

薩默斯在接受彭博社"華爾街周刊"采訪時(shí)指出，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能會(huì)更快到來(lái)。

However, last Monday, President Biden said that there was "nothing inevitable about a recession," and that he talked to Summers that morning.

然而，6月20日拜登總統(tǒng)表示“經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退沒(méi)有什么不可避免的”，并在當(dāng)天上午與薩默斯進(jìn)行了交談。

Moore noted on Monday that he didn’t agree with Biden nor Summers and that he believed the US was already in a mild recession.

摩爾6月27日指出，他不同意拜登和薩默斯的觀點(diǎn)，他認(rèn)為美國(guó)已經(jīng)處于溫和衰退中。

A recession refers to a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) activity, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, for two consecutive quarters.

經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退是指國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）活動(dòng)連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度收縮，GDP是衡量一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體生產(chǎn)商品和服務(wù)的最廣泛指標(biāo)。

It was revealed in late April that the US economy cooled markedly in the first three months of the year, as snarled supply chains, record-high inflation and labor shortages weighed on growth and slowed the pandemic recovery.

4月底公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，供應(yīng)鏈混亂、創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高通脹和被勞動(dòng)力短缺拖累的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和復(fù)蘇，這些因素導(dǎo)致今年前三個(gè)月美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)明顯降溫。

Moore pointed to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the "first six months of the year have been negative for growth."

摩爾在6月27日提到了GDP數(shù)據(jù)，并指出“今年上半年的增長(zhǎng)為負(fù)值?！?/p>

He also noted that the figure is "not a catastrophic loss in GDP, but we’re probably down 1% from where we were six months ago."

他指出，“GDP沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)災(zāi)難性的下降，但可能比六個(gè)月前下降了1%”。

"And then when you add to that the fact that people’s incomes in real terms are falling really fast, something like $2,000 to $3,000 a year, that’s a recession," he continued. "So yeah, we’re in a recession."

“再加上人們的實(shí)際收入正在快速下降，大約每年減少2000到3000美元，這就是一場(chǎng)衰退。是的，我們正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中?！?/p>

Moore then said that he believes "the only real question right now is whether we’re going to have a soft landing or we are going to have a crash landing."

摩爾接著說(shuō)，他認(rèn)為“目前唯一真正的問(wèn)題是，美國(guó)要實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸，還是要實(shí)現(xiàn)硬著陸。”

Many economists, like Moore, are wondering whether the Fed can successfully engineer the elusive soft landing — the sweet spot between tamping down demand to cool inflation without sending the economy into a downturn. Hiking interest rates tends to create higher rates on consumer and business loans, which slows the economy by forcing employers to cut back on spending.

摩爾等許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都在猜測(cè)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能否成功實(shí)現(xiàn)難以捉摸的軟著陸，即在抑制需求以緩解通脹的同時(shí)又不讓經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入低迷的最佳結(jié)果。加息往往會(huì)提高消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的貸款利率，迫使雇主削減支出，從而減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

Earlier this June, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 75-basis points for the first time in nearly three decades.

6月早些時(shí)候，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)，這是近30年來(lái)首次。

Moore argued that whether a soft landing can be achieved largely "depends on the policy decisions that the Fed and the Biden administration make over the course of the next two to three to six months."

摩爾認(rèn)為，能否實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸在很大程度上“取決于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和拜登政府在未來(lái)兩三個(gè)月到六個(gè)月內(nèi)作出的政策決定”。

來(lái)源：?？怂剐侣劸W(wǎng)
編輯：董靜