往年一到感恩節(jié)和圣誕季，美國(guó)人都會(huì)給許多親友同事送去節(jié)日禮物，但是今年美國(guó)人在送禮上可能不會(huì)那么大方了，飛漲的物價(jià)迫使人們壓縮送禮開(kāi)支，送禮購(gòu)物季也將不再瘋狂。

The kids, the grandparents, the babysitter, maybe your favorite aunt or uncle. That’s it.

孩子、祖父母、保姆，也許還有你最親的姑姑或叔叔。要送禮的人就這么多。

You can blame inflation for families knocking friends, co-workers and extended families off your holiday gift lists this year.

今年美國(guó)家庭只能把朋友、同事和親戚從節(jié)日送禮名單上移除，要怪就怪通貨膨脹。

Persistent inflation – consumer prices increased by 8.5% in July over last year – has reshaped how Americans are budgeting for everyday necessities and occasional indulgences. Prices are up for everything from groceries to clothing, shoes, stationery items and more.

持續(xù)的通脹——7月消費(fèi)者價(jià)格同比上漲8.5%——已經(jīng)改變了美國(guó)人花費(fèi)在日常必需品和偶爾放縱上的預(yù)算。從食品雜貨到服裝、鞋、文具等各種商品的價(jià)格都上漲了。

It’s also forced many households to tap into their savings or rack up more credit card debt just to keep up with the higher cost of living. Over the past year, credit card debt has jumped by $100 billion, or 13%, the biggest percentage increase in more than 20 years.

通脹導(dǎo)致的生活成本上升還迫使許多家庭為了維持生活而動(dòng)用存款或欠下更多信用卡債務(wù)。過(guò)去一年來(lái)，美國(guó)的信用卡債務(wù)增加了1000億美元，漲幅高達(dá)13%，創(chuàng)下20多年來(lái)的最大漲幅。

What does all this mean for the upcoming 2022 holiday shopping season? Less. A lot less.

所有這些對(duì)即將到來(lái)的2022節(jié)日購(gòu)物季意味著什么呢？意味著人們會(huì)減少開(kāi)支，而且是大減。

It’ll be a stark contrast from last year’s robust holiday performance, according to a new forecast from consulting firm Deloitte.

咨詢(xún)公司德勤的最新預(yù)測(cè)顯示，今年的節(jié)日銷(xiāo)售業(yè)績(jī)將與去年形成強(qiáng)烈反差。

It expects retail sales for the key year-end gift-buying months of November, December and January to increase 4% to 6%. This compares with a robust 15.1% increase for the same time frame last year.

德勤預(yù)期年末送禮季（11月、12月和1月）的零售額將比其他月份增長(zhǎng)4%到6%。相比之下，去年同期的增長(zhǎng)幅度高達(dá)15.1%。

The projected sharp pullback from last year “reflects the slowdown in the economy,” Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s US economic forecaster, said in a report. “Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending.”

德勤的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)師丹尼爾·巴赫曼在一份報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，相比去年零售額大減“反映出經(jīng)濟(jì)正在減速。零售業(yè)的銷(xiāo)售額可能還會(huì)進(jìn)一步受到耐用消費(fèi)品需求下降的影響，而耐用消費(fèi)品一直是疫情支出的核心。”

The 15% growth in holiday shopping last season was also largely due to the “uncommon circumstances surrounding the pandemic", namely the shift to spending on “things rather than experience and the extra cash provided by the stimulus checks,” said Andrew Forman, associate professor of marketing, at Hofstra University’s Frank G. Zarb School of Business.

霍夫斯特拉大學(xué)弗蘭克扎布商學(xué)院的營(yíng)銷(xiāo)學(xué)副教授安德魯·福曼指出，去年節(jié)日購(gòu)物季15%的增幅很大程度上也是由于“和疫情有關(guān)的特殊情況”，人們轉(zhuǎn)而購(gòu)買(mǎi)“物品而非經(jīng)歷”，同時(shí)還因?yàn)槿藗冊(cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃中獲得了額外的現(xiàn)金。

"This year’s shopping season is likely to be challenging for retailers,” he said.

他說(shuō)：“今年的購(gòu)物季對(duì)于零售商而言將會(huì)不好過(guò)。”

Smaller gifts 縮水的節(jié)日禮物

Among the gifting categories that are still expected to do well this year are clothing, toys and gift cards. Spending in restaurants, entertainment and travel should also perk up, said Rod Sides, vice chair with Deloitte and head of its US retail and distribution practice.

德勤副董事長(zhǎng)兼美國(guó)零售批發(fā)業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人羅德·賽茲表示，今年仍將吃香的禮物類(lèi)別是服裝、玩具和禮品卡，餐廳、娛樂(lè)和旅游消費(fèi)應(yīng)該也會(huì)增加。

"Overall, there will still be sales growth but it won’t be as dramatic as last year,” said Sides. “If there are fewer gift purchases by consumers, expect to see even more holiday promotions than ever.”

賽茲說(shuō)：“總體來(lái)看，銷(xiāo)售額會(huì)增長(zhǎng)，但不會(huì)像去年的增幅那么大。如果消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買(mǎi)的禮物減少了，那么節(jié)日的促銷(xiāo)活動(dòng)可能會(huì)比以往更多?！?/p>

Inflation won’t be the Grinch that completely stole Christmas, according to Neil Saunders, retail analyst and managing director at GlobalData Retail.

咨詢(xún)機(jī)構(gòu)GlobalData Retail的零售業(yè)分析師兼常務(wù)董事尼爾·桑德斯表示，通脹不會(huì)完全“偷走”圣誕節(jié)。

"Gifting will remain an important part of the holidays, but consumers will be much more frugal and practical in their gift spending. That means cutting back on gifting to non-family members such as colleagues or friends, so gifting circles will shrink,” he said.

他指出：“送禮仍會(huì)是節(jié)日的一個(gè)重要部分，但是消費(fèi)者在送禮支出上會(huì)節(jié)儉務(wù)實(shí)得多。這意味著削減送給同事或朋友等非家庭成員的禮物，也就是說(shuō)，送禮圈子將會(huì)縮小?！?/p>

If consumers are planning fewer gifts, they will likely try to make them more meaningful, said Saunders.

桑德斯說(shuō)，如果消費(fèi)者計(jì)劃送出的禮物變少，那么他們會(huì)努力讓禮物更有意義。

"They will be keen to ensure they are things that are wanted rather than fripperies that are a bit of a waste of money. Practical gifts will be in, including the gifting of cash and gift cards so that recipients can choose exactly what they want,” he said.

他說(shuō)：“他們會(huì)確保禮物是對(duì)方想要的，而不是瞎花錢(qián)的華而不實(shí)的東西。包括現(xiàn)金和禮品卡在內(nèi)的實(shí)用禮物將會(huì)成為首選，這樣收禮者就可以選擇自己真正想要的東西。”

One area where there won’t be much of a cutback? Gifts for kids. Said Saunders, “Parents are always keen to pull out all the stops to ensure children have a great holiday.”

不太會(huì)縮水的禮物是哪一塊呢？那就是給孩子的禮物。桑德斯說(shuō)：“父母?jìng)兛偸窃敢鈨A盡全力，讓孩子們度過(guò)一個(gè)快樂(lè)的節(jié)日。”

英文來(lái)源：美國(guó)有線(xiàn)電視新聞網(wǎng)

翻譯&編輯：丹妮