在各界擔(dān)憂聲中，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府債務(wù)規(guī)模近日突破了35萬(wàn)億美元大關(guān)。由于債務(wù)規(guī)模不斷攀升、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)長(zhǎng)期維持高利率，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府的借貸成本正在不斷上升。美國(guó)彼得·彼得森基金會(huì)警告稱，長(zhǎng)期國(guó)債利息負(fù)擔(dān)已成為聯(lián)邦政府財(cái)政預(yù)算的沉重拖累，并將對(duì)美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)前景構(gòu)成重大挑戰(zhàn)。

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hiking campaign, aimed at quelling inflation, has made debt more expensive to issue for the federal government. The interest burden on outstanding US debt remained a major drag on the budget. Interest costs in the first 10 months of the fiscal year totaled $956 billion, up 32% from 2023.
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)旨在抑制通脹而激進(jìn)加息，增加了聯(lián)邦政府的發(fā)債成本。未償美債的利息負(fù)擔(dān)仍然是政府預(yù)算的主要“累贅”。本財(cái)年美國(guó)國(guó)債前10個(gè)月的利息成本總計(jì)為9560億美元，較2023財(cái)年同期增長(zhǎng)32%。

The growth in interest costs presents a significant challenge in the long-term as well. According to CBO’s most recent long-term projections, interest payments would total around $78 trillion over the next 30 years and would take up 34 percent of all federal revenues by 2054. Interest costs would also become the largest “program” over the next few decades — surpassing Social Security in 2051.
美國(guó)彼得·彼得森基金會(huì)認(rèn)為，美國(guó)國(guó)債利息成本的增長(zhǎng)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)前景構(gòu)成了重大挑戰(zhàn)。根據(jù)美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室最新的長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)，未來(lái)30年，美債利息支出總額將達(dá)到約78萬(wàn)億美元，到2054年將占聯(lián)邦財(cái)政收入的34%。利息成本也將成為未來(lái)幾十年最大的 “支出項(xiàng)”，到2051年將超過(guò)社會(huì)保障投入。

Ballooning interest costs threaten to crowd out important public investments that can fuel economic growth in the future. CBO estimates that by 2054, interest costs are projected to be nearly three times what the federal government has historically spent on R&D, nondefense infrastructure, and education, combined.
彼得·彼得森基金會(huì)指出，不斷膨脹的利息成本有可能會(huì)擠占能夠促進(jìn)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要公共投資。國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室估計(jì)，到 2054 年，利息成本預(yù)計(jì)將是聯(lián)邦政府歷來(lái)在研發(fā)、非國(guó)防基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和教育方面支出總和的近三倍。

The long-term fiscal challenges facing the United States are serious. As interest rates rise and the nation’s debt grows, it will become even more expensive to borrow in the future.
該基金會(huì)稱，美國(guó)面臨的長(zhǎng)期財(cái)政挑戰(zhàn)十分嚴(yán)峻。隨著利率的上升和債務(wù)的增加，未來(lái)的借貸成本將更加高昂。

英文來(lái)源：Fortune, Peter G. Peterson Foundation

編輯：董靜

審校：陳丹妮 齊磊