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Fact check in the first Clinton v Trump presidential debate
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當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間9月26日晚,美國(guó)大選進(jìn)行兩黨候選人第一輪電視辯論,這也是民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人希拉里與共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人特朗普的首次正面對(duì)決。90分鐘的唇槍舌戰(zhàn),兩人就美國(guó)方向(America's direction)、實(shí)現(xiàn)繁榮(achieving prosperity)、保障美國(guó)安全(securing America)三個(gè)主題進(jìn)行了辯論。期間,特朗普打斷希拉里多達(dá)51次,而希拉里只打斷了特朗普17次。辯論期間,兩人都表達(dá)了很多觀點(diǎn),各家媒體一邊看直播一邊開(kāi)始查證兩人所述內(nèi)容的真實(shí)性。我們一起來(lái)看看英國(guó)廣播公司(BBC)在辯論結(jié)束后作出的fact check。
Claim: Donald Trump repeated his insistence that he was against the 2003 invasion of Iraq, claiming Clinton's assertions to the contrary were "mainstream media nonsense put out by her".
現(xiàn)場(chǎng)表述:特朗普反復(fù)強(qiáng)調(diào)說(shuō)他是反對(duì)2003年入侵伊拉克的,并聲稱(chēng)克林頓方面說(shuō)他支持伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的觀點(diǎn)是“她向主流媒體散布出去的胡言亂語(yǔ)”。
Reality Check verdict: Trump did not publicly speak out against the war before it started. On September, 11 2002, radio host Howard Stern asked Trump if he supported a potential invasion of Iraq. He replied: "Yeah, I guess so". During the debate, he tried to explain that away by saying the comment had been made "lightly". He said he had been arguing in private, to Fox News's Sean Hannity, that war would destabilize the Middle East, but we have no evidence to support that so far. He did start to express doubts after the invasion.
事實(shí)查證:伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)開(kāi)始之前,特朗普并未公開(kāi)表示反對(duì)。2002年9月11日,電臺(tái)主持人Howard Stern問(wèn)特朗普是否支持未來(lái)入侵伊拉克,他回答說(shuō):“是的,我想應(yīng)該支持吧?!痹谵q論中,特朗普試圖為此開(kāi)脫,稱(chēng)當(dāng)時(shí)是“隨口一說(shuō)”。他對(duì)??怂剐侣劦腟ean Hannity表示曾經(jīng)私下為此爭(zhēng)論過(guò),稱(chēng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)會(huì)使中東失去穩(wěn)定局面,但目前為止我們找不到證據(jù)支持這一論述。不過(guò),在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)開(kāi)始以后,他的確開(kāi)始表達(dá)質(zhì)疑了。
Claim: Clinton attacked Trump over his boasts about his business acumen. "You know, Donald was very fortunate in his life and that's all to his benefit," Clinton said. "He started his business with $14m, borrowed from his father."
現(xiàn)場(chǎng)表述:克林頓現(xiàn)場(chǎng)對(duì)特朗普吹噓自己敏銳的商業(yè)頭腦進(jìn)行攻擊。克林頓說(shuō):“你們知道,特朗普這一生很幸運(yùn),他的優(yōu)勢(shì)也就這些了。他用來(lái)創(chuàng)業(yè)的1400萬(wàn)美元是從他父親那里借來(lái)的?!?/p>
Reality Check verdict: Trump says he received a $1m loan from his real estate mogul father. He also got loan guarantees and money from his future inheritance and inherited a share of his father's property holdings.
事實(shí)查證:特朗普說(shuō)他從地產(chǎn)大亨父親那里獲得了100萬(wàn)美元的貸款,另外還從父親那里得到了貸款擔(dān)保,從未來(lái)要繼承的遺產(chǎn)中預(yù)支的資金,還繼承了父親在地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目中的一部分股份。
Claim: Trump alleged that Clinton called the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal the "gold standard" of trade agreements. Clinton denied this but added: "I did say I hoped it would be a good deal."
現(xiàn)場(chǎng)表述:特朗普說(shuō)克林頓把跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系貿(mào)易協(xié)定稱(chēng)為貿(mào)易協(xié)定的“黃金準(zhǔn)則”。克林頓予以否認(rèn),不過(guò)表示:“我的確說(shuō)過(guò)希望這個(gè)協(xié)定是個(gè)好協(xié)定?!?/p>
Reality Check verdict: We give this one to Trump. Clinton did more than express hope that the deal would turn out well and in a 2012 trip to Australia said it would be the "gold standard": "This TPP sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field."
事實(shí)查證:這一輪特朗普勝出??肆诸D不止表達(dá)過(guò)希望這個(gè)協(xié)定能夠順利達(dá)成,還在2012年訪問(wèn)澳大利亞時(shí)說(shuō),這個(gè)協(xié)定會(huì)是“黃金準(zhǔn)則”:“這個(gè)跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定為貿(mào)易協(xié)定展開(kāi)自由、透明及公平的貿(mào)易建立了黃金準(zhǔn)則,這樣的貿(mào)易環(huán)境有法治,也有公平交易的平臺(tái)。”
Claim: Clinton said: "People have looked at both of our plans, have concluded that mine would create 10 million jobs and yours would lose us 3.5 million jobs."
現(xiàn)場(chǎng)表述:“人們?cè)诳催^(guò)我倆的計(jì)劃后,得出的結(jié)論是,我的計(jì)劃可以創(chuàng)造出1000萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,而你的計(jì)劃會(huì)讓我們失去350萬(wàn)份工作?!?/p>
Reality Check verdict: Clinton has made this claim before. It is based on an optimistic reading of a report by Moody's Analytics, which says that most of the 10 million new jobs would be created anyway by an expanding economy. If all of Clinton's economic policies became law - which the report says is unlikely - they would account for 3.2 million of the 10 million jobs. The same company analysed Trump's plans and suggested they would tip the US into recession and lead to 3.5 million job losses - something strongly disputed by the Trump campaign.
事實(shí)查證:希拉里以前就放出過(guò)同樣的言論。這是基于對(duì)穆迪分析機(jī)構(gòu)一份報(bào)告的樂(lè)觀解讀,該報(bào)告稱(chēng)經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張將創(chuàng)造出1000萬(wàn)個(gè)新的工作崗位。如果希拉里所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策都成為法律——該報(bào)告表示這是不可能的——那么1000萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位中將有320萬(wàn)個(gè)是受益于希拉里的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。該機(jī)構(gòu)同樣分析了特朗普的計(jì)劃,并指出他的計(jì)劃會(huì)讓美國(guó)陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,并導(dǎo)致美國(guó)失去350萬(wàn)個(gè)工作機(jī)會(huì),而這個(gè)結(jié)論受到了特朗普競(jìng)選團(tuán)隊(duì)的強(qiáng)烈質(zhì)疑。
But the two reports cover different time frames. The author Mark Zandi told CNN Money a more accurate comparison to the 10 million jobs created under Clinton would be 400,000 jobs lost under Trump, not 3.4 million.
不過(guò)兩份報(bào)告是在不同時(shí)間段的研究結(jié)果。報(bào)告作者馬克?贊迪告訴CNN財(cái)經(jīng)說(shuō),更準(zhǔn)確的數(shù)據(jù)是,希拉里執(zhí)政下若能創(chuàng)造出1000萬(wàn)份工作,那么特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政下失去的工作機(jī)會(huì)將不是340萬(wàn)個(gè),而是40萬(wàn)個(gè)。
Claim: Trump has frequently tried to blame the rise of Islamic State militants on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. This is his latest attempt.
現(xiàn)場(chǎng)表述:特朗普多次試圖將伊斯蘭國(guó)武裝分子的崛起歸咎于美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿希拉里。這次辯論特朗普又一次拿此事攻擊希拉里。
Reality Check verdict: Possibly the strangest claim of the night. Clinton is 68 years old. The so-called Islamic State did not appear on the scene until 2009, although its roots stretch back to the Sunni terror group al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), which started in 2004.
事實(shí)查證:這也許是本場(chǎng)辯論中最莫名其妙的言論。希拉里已經(jīng)68歲。所謂的伊斯蘭國(guó)一直到2009年才出現(xiàn),不過(guò)它發(fā)源于伊拉克的遜尼派恐怖組織——基地組織,該組織于2004年建立。
Claim: Clinton accused Trump of calling climate change a hoax invented by the Chinese. He insisted "I did not say that".
現(xiàn)場(chǎng)表述:希拉里指責(zé)特朗普把氣候變化稱(chēng)為中國(guó)人發(fā)明的騙局。特朗普?qǐng)?jiān)稱(chēng)“我沒(méi)說(shuō)過(guò)這話”。
Reality Check verdict: This claim relates to a 2012 tweet which Trump later said was a joke. He said: "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive."
事實(shí)查證:希拉里指的是2012年特朗普發(fā)的一條推文,后來(lái),特朗普表示這是個(gè)笑話。他在推文中說(shuō):全球變暖的概念是中國(guó)人為了中國(guó)人編造出來(lái)的,目的是讓美國(guó)的制造業(yè)失去競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。
Claim: Clinton said race determines how people are treated in the criminal justice system.
現(xiàn)場(chǎng)表述:希拉里表示,在刑事司法制度中,種族決定了人們會(huì)被如何對(duì)待。
Reality Check verdict: This is a tough one to prove as there are no figures on the percentage of crimes that result in arrest. What we do know is that black people are locked up five times more frequently than white people. African-American people make up about 13% of the United States population. White people make up 64%. But black people make up 40% of the prison population, and white people 39%. It does not mean that black people, who tend to live more in urban, heavily policed areas, are five times as likely to commit crime however.
事實(shí)查證:這很難證實(shí),因?yàn)闆](méi)有導(dǎo)致逮捕嫌犯的犯罪比例的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)。但我們知道,黑人被拘押的幾率是白人的五倍。非裔美國(guó)人占美國(guó)人口的大約13%,白人占64%。但監(jiān)獄罪犯中有40%是黑人,白人有39%。但這并不能表明,更多地居住在警方管控更嚴(yán)格的城市中的黑人犯罪率就是白人的五倍。
Clinton also claimed that African American men are more likely to be killed by guns than other demographics, something that is largely born out by the statistics.
希拉里還表示,非裔美國(guó)男性比其他族群更容易被槍殺,這在很大程度上已被數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)。
Claim: Murders in New York city are up.
現(xiàn)場(chǎng)表述:紐約市謀殺率上升。
Reality Check verdict: As so often with crime statistics it depends how you slice it. The murder rate in New York city is close to record lows but did increase slightly between 2014 and 2015, according to FBI figures. But the very latest figures from the New York Police Department show murder rates are down 4% on 2015.
事實(shí)查證:犯罪數(shù)據(jù)要看你怎么看待了。美國(guó)聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示,紐約市謀殺率接近史上最低,但在2014至2015年間確實(shí)有輕微上升。但紐約警察局的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2015年該市謀殺率下降了4%。
Murder rates across the US as a whole went up 10.8% in 2015, the biggest single-year percentage jump since 1971, with a big spike in a handful of cities including Chicago, Washington DC and Baltimore.
2015年,美國(guó)全國(guó)的謀殺率上升了10.8%,是自1971年以來(lái)上升最快的一年。芝加哥、華盛頓和巴爾的摩等數(shù)個(gè)城市謀殺率飆升。
Trump also claimed that "stop and frisk" tactics "worked very well in New York" and brought crime rates down. This is hotly disputed by researchers and commentators. Violent crime rates have continued to decline in New York, as part of a long term trend, even though the number of "stop and frisk" searches has gone down dramatically in recent years. Research by Jeffrey Fagan of Columbia University found indiscriminate searches had little effect on crime, although his research also found crime was reduced when police stopped and frisked civilians after observing someone acting violently, selling drugs or "casing a joint".
特朗普還表示,“攔截搜身”的策略“在紐約非常有效”,使犯罪率下降。而這遭到研究人員和評(píng)論人士的熱議。盡管近年來(lái)“攔截搜身”檢查次數(shù)迅速下降,但紐約市的暴力犯罪率持續(xù)走低,成為一種長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)。哥倫比亞大學(xué)杰弗里-費(fèi)根的研究顯示,不加選擇的檢查對(duì)降低犯罪率基本無(wú)效,但他的研究還顯示,當(dāng)警察注意到有人有暴力行為、出售毒品、或者想要偷竊時(shí)對(duì)民眾進(jìn)行盤(pán)查,可以減少犯罪。
Claim: Trump says he can't release his tax returns because he is in the middle of a tax audit. He also says publishing them would not reveal much.
現(xiàn)場(chǎng)表述:特朗普稱(chēng)自己無(wú)法公布納稅申報(bào)單,因?yàn)樗诮邮芏悇?wù)審計(jì)。他還表示即便公布了也沒(méi)有什么料。
Clinton suggests he will never publish them as they might reveal he is not as rich as he says he is, does not pay Federal tax and does not give as much to charity as claimed.
希拉里則表示特朗普永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)公布納稅申報(bào)單,因?yàn)閺纳陥?bào)單上人們可以看出他并沒(méi)有自己說(shuō)的那么有錢(qián),也沒(méi)有繳納足額的聯(lián)邦稅費(fèi),募捐給慈善的錢(qián)也沒(méi)自己聲稱(chēng)的那樣多。
Reality Check verdict: Being audited by the Internal Revenue Service does not prohibit the release of tax returns. They would reveal Trump's annual income, how much he pays in tax and how much he gives to charity. Trump claims he has given $102m to charity in the past five years, but a Washington Post investigation could not find any cash donated by Trump's businesses after 2008. Trump's actual wealth has been assessed by Forbes at $4.5bn, compared with the $10bn he claims.
事實(shí)查證:接受?chē)?guó)稅局審計(jì)并不妨礙公布納稅申報(bào)單。從申報(bào)單上人們可以看出特朗普的年收入、繳納的稅金、以及捐獻(xiàn)給慈善事業(yè)的金額。特朗普聲稱(chēng)自己在過(guò)去五年中共捐出1.02億美元用于慈善,但《華盛頓郵報(bào)》的調(diào)查顯示,2008年后特朗普名下企業(yè)并未捐出一分錢(qián)。福布斯估計(jì)特朗普的真實(shí)身價(jià)為45億美元,而他自己聲稱(chēng)有100億美元資產(chǎn)。
Interestingly, Trump has never provided evidence that he is actually under audit by the tax authorities. According to Associated Press, a letter released by his tax lawyers never used the word, merely describing his tax returns as under continuous review.
有趣的是,特朗普從未提供證據(jù)證明他真的在接受稅務(wù)審計(jì)。據(jù)美聯(lián)社報(bào)道,特朗普的稅務(wù)律師發(fā)布的公開(kāi)信中從未提到這個(gè)詞,僅表明他的納稅申報(bào)正接受連續(xù)審查。
英文來(lái)源:BBC
編輯:丹妮 馬文英 yaning
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